Volatile global economy: diversification as a success factor

Global economic development remains volatile and marked by uncertainty. While the US economy fluctuates due to trade tariffs, the labour market and consumer demand are supporting inflation. In Europe, industrial activity is showing signs of recovery, albeit from a low level. China is relying on economic stimulus programmes to boost consumption. Markets for real estate, commodities and crypto assets are also reacting to monetary policy developments. Overall, the situation remains dynamic, presenting both opportunities and risks across different asset classes.

Global economic data indicates increasing volatility. In the US, uncertainty regarding future trade tariffs is leading to fluctuating and, in some cases, weaker economic data. The labour market remains a pillar of support for consumption, which is keeping inflation relatively stable. Nonetheless, consumer sentiment is characterised by inflation concerns in light of higher tariffs. Industrial activity in both the US and Europe is recovering from a low level. Infrastructure and defence investments could support the European economy. The Chinese government has announced economic stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption. Overall, while the global economy is growing, it is characterised by increased tariff uncertainty and thus also by stagflation risks.
 

Currencies

At the start of March, the German CDU and SPD parties surprised everyone with planned stimulus measures, temporarily spurring the euro. This development is expected to be short-lived, however, as the interest rate differential between the euro and other currencies remains unchanged and the fiscal policy shift has yet to materialise in the real economy. A significant growth impulse is therefore not yet expected, and a more restrictive monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB) remains highly unlikely in the near future.
 

Bonds

The announced fiscal policy expansions in Germany caused yields on European government bonds to rise temporarily. Due to declining inflation expectations, however, and the weak growth outlook for Europe, we continue to expect low interest rates in the Eurozone. Germany’s higher level of debt should be easily manageable thanks to high tax revenues, and German government bond ratings are unlikely to be negatively impacted to any great extent. In February, the ECB reduced its balance sheet by EUR 58 billion (“quantitative tightening”), which had a restrictive effect on monetary policy. The ECB may therefore soon consider slowing its balance sheet reduction, mirroring the recent policy shift by the US Federal Reserve, and partly reinvest maturing bonds.

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Indirect real estate

Following a good start to the year, the recent rise in interest rates and various capital increases led to a slight fall in prices. Demand is still being driven by favourable underlying conditions (economic growth, housing shortages, low office vacancy rates) and shifts from bonds to real estate investments (higher real yields). The downward adjustment of the reference interest rate is manageable for real estate funds. Some will likely opt not to proactively pass on the reduction and compensate for inflation. With the conclusion of the current capital increases, we expect the market to recover in the short term driven by dividend reinvestments (CHF 500 million in gross dividends expected by the end of April). However, the announcements of further capital increases could put the brakes on this recovery once more.

Equities

Since Donald Trump took office, various announcements regarding possible US tariffs as well as reports of retaliatory measures from affected countries have led to heightened volatility on the equity markets. Performance varied greatly across the different regions and investment styles: European equities significantly outperformed their US counterparts on both a year-to-date and monthly basis. Swiss equities, both large cap as well as small and mid cap, also fared better than the MSCI World Index. At the asset class level, we are maintaining the neutral weighting in equities. Within the equities segment, we continue to favour Swiss equities and hold a positive view of global high-quality stocks as well as mid-sized US companies, which benefit disproportionately from lower interest rates and are less exposed to tariffs or retaliatory measures.

Commodities

The positive trend in gold prices persisted, as the precious metal continued to benefit from geopolitical uncertainty and extensive central bank purchases. Despite the strong performance, we are maintaining our neutral positioning, as gold can serve as a “safe haven” and provide the portfolio with protection against possible geopolitical escalations. The global commodity markets have also performed positively recently, with industrial metals, in particular, joining precious metals in the uptrend. Our neutral weighting in commodities as a whole remains unchanged despite persistent volatility, as they offer important protection against inflation – a factor that could become more important should inflation accelerate again.

Private markets

Evergreen buyout funds and senior secured evergreen loans will gain in importance during the course of 2025. Evergreen funds offer the opportunity to invest 100% in a broadly diversified portfolio, place smaller investment amounts and, at the same time, minimise the J-curve effect. Our selected funds offer access to high-quality companies in developed markets. These are currently benefiting from improved market conditions, which could boost exit activities. Senior secured evergreen loans combine stability through seniority in the capital structure with flexibility. They benefit from robust creditor protection and a variable interest rate, making them attractive in an uncertain interest rate environment.

Digital assets

Despite short-term market fluctuations and global uncertainty, we are maintaining our moderate overweight position in crypto assets, as we see limited downside potential. Bitcoin’s eight-month consolidation in mid-2024 has reinforced its status as a USD 1 trillion asset and established a strong support zone. In addition, the reduction in balance sheet contraction (QT) by the US Federal Reserve should offer marginal support to the liquidity environment. Against this backdrop, Ethereum may form a relative price floor versus Bitcoin (ETHBTC) over the coming weeks. Furthermore, the first futures-based Solana ETFs in the US should pave the way for spot ETFs, which confirms our selective tactical positioning in Solana.

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^{This publication is intended for information and marketing purposes only, and is not geared to the conclusion of a contract. It only contains the market and investment commentaries of Maerki Baumann & Co. AG and an assessment of selected financial instruments. Consequently, this publication does not constitute investment advice or a specific individual investment recommendation, and is not an offer for the purchase or sale of investment instruments. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG does not provide legal or tax advice. In addition, Maerki Baumann & Co. AG accepts no liability whatsoever for the content of this document; in particular, it does not accept any liability for losses of any kind, whether direct, indirect or incidental, which may be incurred as a result of using the information contained in this document and/or arising from the risks inherent in the financial markets. Maerki Baumann & Co. AG holds a Swiss banking license issued by the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).}

Editorial deadline: 25 March 2025

Maerki Baumann & Co. AG
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